Taiwan: China's next target? | DW Analysis

[Nilgiri]

Despite China’s increasingly aggressive behaviour both at home and abroad, Beijing’s open threat to take control of Taiwan by force is receiving comparatively little attention – leaving this flourishing liberal democracy uniquely isolated and vulnerable. The threat may be far more imminent than many imagine. According to Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu “the Chinese authoritarian leaders may find Taiwan as a convenient scapegoat. Therefore Taiwan needs to be doubly concerned about a possible Chinese use of force against us.”

CHAPTERS

5:09 What is Taiwan?
16:05 Why China wants Taiwan
26:25 Scenario 1: Chipping away
33:10 Scenario 2: Crimea 2.0
41:18 Scenario 3: Invasion
49:05 What now?

 

[Saithan]

Despite China’s increasingly aggressive behaviour both at home and abroad, Beijing’s open threat to take control of Taiwan by force is receiving comparatively little attention – leaving this flourishing liberal democracy uniquely isolated and vulnerable. The threat may be far more imminent than many imagine. According to Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu “the Chinese authoritarian leaders may find Taiwan as a convenient scapegoat. Therefore Taiwan needs to be doubly concerned about a possible Chinese use of force against us.”

CHAPTERS

5:09 What is Taiwan?
16:05 Why China wants Taiwan
26:25 Scenario 1: Chipping away
33:10 Scenario 2: Crimea 2.0
41:18 Scenario 3: Invasion
49:05 What now?

I don’t see any other options than nuclear capable Taiwan.

Nuclear powerplants would work similarly, but more like an absolute last solution.

 

[Nilgiri]

I don’t see any other options than nuclear capable Taiwan.

Nuclear powerplants would work similarly, but more like an absolute last solution.

With assistance from the Quad and Quad allies, I think Taiwan can work out something this decade if it chooses to, but the strategic ambiguity the US approaches issue with (discussed at the end of this quite good documentary) will first need to be sorted out to provide something of a robust clear enough umbrella for about 10 years time....with probably heavy back channel communication done between US and China on what the red lines are in escalation to best protect/shield their populations and industries if a flashpoint starts...and what those flashpoints even are for both.

Provided that happens, Taiwan with that cover afforded.... has to look at the recent SK recent class of conventional submarine (KSS-III) with the extended VLS section that can handle SLBMs if needed...and also talk to Japan and/or South Korea unofficially about what "screw-driver" unofficial nuclear weapons are.

The guy talking about the landing beaches and stuff in the documentary is on a fools errand, you need a truly credible deterrence, its the only way.